The New York Times reported over the weekend that the number “1.85”
is “the lodestar of a new demography that will lead us to a different world. It should change the way we think about economics, geopolitics, the environment, culture - and about ourselves.”
Why?
Because demographers always have worked on the assumption that the total fertility rate was 2.1 children born per woman.
But now, United Nations demographers say that because of a decline in worldwide fertility rates, the current assumption must be that the total fertility rate is 1.85 children born per woman.
This is a major shift, because it used to be that the average couple would have enough children to replace them on the planet. This no longer seems to be the case.
“This will lead, later in this century, to global population decline,”
according to the NYT, which is a radical notion in a world brought up on the idea of overpopulation. While it will take some time, the next crisis in his area will be depopulation.
However, because the US takes in more immigrants than other countries, its population is expected to grow by 100 million over the next half-century, while eh European population declines by roughly the same amount. The upside of all this, at least when examined from the global perspective, is that fewer people on the planet will use less oil, cause less pollution, and take up less space.
is “the lodestar of a new demography that will lead us to a different world. It should change the way we think about economics, geopolitics, the environment, culture - and about ourselves.”
Why?
Because demographers always have worked on the assumption that the total fertility rate was 2.1 children born per woman.
But now, United Nations demographers say that because of a decline in worldwide fertility rates, the current assumption must be that the total fertility rate is 1.85 children born per woman.
This is a major shift, because it used to be that the average couple would have enough children to replace them on the planet. This no longer seems to be the case.
“This will lead, later in this century, to global population decline,”
according to the NYT, which is a radical notion in a world brought up on the idea of overpopulation. While it will take some time, the next crisis in his area will be depopulation.
However, because the US takes in more immigrants than other countries, its population is expected to grow by 100 million over the next half-century, while eh European population declines by roughly the same amount. The upside of all this, at least when examined from the global perspective, is that fewer people on the planet will use less oil, cause less pollution, and take up less space.
- KC's View:
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We’re not sure that there is anything in this story that retailers should be reacting to immediately. (No reason to cut back on those Pampers orders just yet!) But it is one of those big trends that thought-leaders need to be aware of.
After all, being a thought-leader means knowing what’s around the corner…and the next corner…and the corner after that.
