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From the New York Times:

"Thanksgiving 2022 is shaping up to be a tough one for turkey. The star of the holiday meal will be both hard to find and more expensive than ever.

"Turkey supplies have been tight for a long time. Producers began to cut back on raising the birds back in 2019 after turkey prices crashed. Then the pandemic hit, further curtailing production.

"Inflation has also pushed up the price of whole turkeys. Farmers and processors are paying a lot more for feed, fuel and labor, which can be scarce. They face supply shortages and drought.

"All of it means that home cooks this year could be paying more than twice as much for a turkey as they did last year, some in the poultry industry predict.

"And then there’s the avian flu. A particularly persistent and contagious strain carried by migrating birds has killed at least 3.6 percent of the nation’s turkeys, or about 7.3 million birds, so far this year, according to figures from the Department of Agriculture and Watt Global Media, which monitors the poultry business."

KC's View:

Seems to me that retailers have to be really transparent with shoppers about the turkey situation, and start the process now - it won't be good for anyone to simply have shoppers find this out when they come to their stores.  (Trust me.  Despite a lot of press attention to the issue, most shoppers will be surprised by a shortage and high prices.)

There also is an opportunity here - in the face of shortages, retailers can suggest to shoppers that it is time to create new traditions.  As I've said here before, we stopped eating turkey on Thanksgiving years ago because none of our kids really liked turkey.  So for us, it is almost always filet mignon served with a short rib mac and cheese, and some sort of vegetable - usually asparagus - and maybe some salad.  That's our tradition, and we love it.