The Conference Board is out with a new economic forecast, predicting that "the global economy will grow 2.1 percent in 2023 … That’s down from 3.2 percent in 2022, and notably below the average pace of growth (3.3 percent) set between the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic."
The forecast anticipates "global GDP to see slower, but still positive, growth through 2023," and that "regional downturns remain highly likely. Facing inflation, rapid interest rate hikes, and war, both the US and Europe are on the cusp of recessions. However, these should be relatively short and shallow, leaving growth for 2023 as a whole at zero in the US and 0.2 percent in the Euro Area."
And, the Conference Board says, while there are "better days ahead," folks probably shouldn't get too excited: "As inflation and COVID disruptions are tamed, the global economy is set for a modest revival in 2024, though growth will remain below the prepandemic average."
- KC's View:
Everything is cyclical, and it is important to remember that sometimes one has to endure a certain amount of pain to get to the other side. That said, the modesty of the recovery means that retailers able to offer consumers aspirational offerings without breaking the bank are likely to be winners.